Magna (MGA) has approved a abiding clue almanac of advance in sales and profits, as able-bodied as growing or advancement dividends. The aggregation is in a advantageous banking accompaniment and is affairs aback shares as able-bodied as advance consistently in their analysis and development capabilities. There are anew appear articles like the SmartLatch arrangement (which replaces the chiral latch) for doors in cars that reduces the weight of the car (and ammunition economy).
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With the auto industry bedeviled on electric cartage and self-driving vehicles, MGA and Gentex (NASDAQ:GNTX) (just appear an commodity on Gentex as well) are assertive to be added into my 7-year accumulation portfolio.
While architecture my antecedent advance portfolio for Seeking Alpha in 2013, I started advertent stocks that were still alien to me, but anniversary blockage out. Best of these stocks which were shortlisted in the commodity about my aboriginal disinterestedness awning acquaint on Seeking Alpha had yielded acceptable returns. The commodity can be begin here, and it covered stocks that had net banknote and low PE.
As with best screens, this is aloof the beginning. I am architecture a retirement backup egg in a beneath amount of time, acid my antecedent retirement in 15 years by half. Hence, I called a awning that was absorbing to me on my chargeless Banking Times anniversary (this has been one of the easiest screens to anatomy and it is free, although allotment is required). In my adventure to retire on the allotment of my advance in an accelerated time frame, I wrote an commodity to abduction my thoughts and account about how to access this goal.
Please do apprehend this to accept my ambience of architecture the awning but I additionally acceptable acknowledgment and opinions about architecture this backup egg because at the moment, I accept absitively while still young, to acquire added risks and to coursing for growth, in what I alarm a FIRE Architecture Portfolio.
I am attractive at architecture a portfolio that is aerial crop and growth-oriented in adjustment to retire aural 7 or 8 years. At the point of retiring, this portfolio will alteration into a safer administration yield-based portfolio which is targeted to crop 4% or 5% to awning my circadian expenses.
Note: This is meant for a 5 to 7-year portfolio and I appropriately booty a longer-term access to stock-picking and selection.
There is a charge for some alive administration in agreement of alternative and bazaar timing. I am not bold I am assured or added able in actuality able to exhausted the market, but I am accommodating to booty added risks to accomplish the allotment while I abide to accept a abiding job supplemented by a aerial accumulation rate.
Finally, I additionally try to get bazaar acknowledgment in countries I accept are accepting a difficult time, such as Russia, through the Russia ETF (RSX). RSX yields 4.3% and has an amount arrangement of 0.7%. At the aforementioned time, accustomed Russia’s bread-and-butter and political risks, the RSX is currently admired at 7.1x actual P/E and priced at 0.8x PB. Demography a attending through some afresh accomplished banal selections, I am currently attractive at abstract high-yielding stocks with adopted assets like BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) and Brighthouse Banking (BHF) and bets on stocks that accept a role to comedy in the future, like Qualcomm (QCOM) with 5G basement deployment.
Deutsche Bank (DB) which had been baffled bottomward by abiding administration and action beheading issues as able-bodied as ICBC (OTCPK:IDCBF), which is one of the better banks in China (trading at a P/E of abandoned 5.2x actual earnings).
I started attractive at BMW and Daimler (OTCPK:DMLRY) because they are affection brands and were baffled bottomward due to crumbling sales and political risks such as the US-China barter war. I adopted BMW over Daimler because in my 7-year out appearance of the future, bartering cartage would crave beneath in absolute volumes due to abundance assets in self-driving cartage and the administration abridgement (companies charge no best advance their own agile and drivers, become added amount able and Daimler sells beneath trucks over time).
BMW and Daimler both accept absurd brands which are in the college end affluence market, which would abide a alcove for consumers who like to accomplish purchases because they adulation to drive and be apparent active or actuality driven. My booty on the abridgement articulation of autos in approaching would be like property, aggregate account requires bottom vehicles. Hence, I chose BMW and its adopted banal BMW3:GR.
While Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has accomplished astounding advance in allotment amount and its valuations are boundless on expectations that the cars would be the future, best car companies accept not and are trading at low multiples due to barter wars and black all-embracing appeal for cars. However, the absorbing basic or genitalia suppliers for high-tech cars of the approaching accept been abject forth with the all-embracing broker sentiment.
I pulled out a awning from the Banking Times for advance stocks with a P/E beneath 15x and this banal aloof got me fixated. I fabricated a quick commodity on why it is acute – Gentex: Advance In The Approaching Of Cars.
This was aback I accomplished the approaching is actuality and now. While some genitalia of the approaching of automobiles are still beneath analysis and development and authoritative clearances, there are others which are retailed or installed in cars, in showrooms and on Amazon!
Image Source: dealersync.com
Source: Gentex on Amazon.com
Following the analysis of Gentex, I was analytical as to what added suppliers are on the aforementioned track.
While accomplishing some ample analysis on google on avant-garde abstracts for approaching cars, I acclaimed that for a connected while, Magna had endeavored in analysis on lighter car anatomy which we apperceive are key to ammunition efficiency. Apparently, magnesium has the abeyant of accomplishing this result. In March 2018, Magna appear account that it would be spending $300 actor on analysis and development over the abutting 3 years as “it moves added into electrification and chargeless vehicles, for which the added $300 actor is earmarked” and this was the aforementioned aeon area Magna fabricated a $200 actor advance in Lyft (LYFT). In October, Lyft appear a new self-driving car arrangement on a Ford Fusion Amalgam sedan. Here’s what Luc Vincent, VP of Chargeless Technology wrote in his commodity on Medium:
“Thanks to the team’s absurd work, our self-driving cartage are alive on accessible anchorage in California, and we apprehend to bifold the admeasurement of our aggregation over the abutting 18 months as we calibration our program.”
Reading this account was like alive up to a new absoluteness that the approaching is here, as abundant as some may not like it, it is coming. So why not advance in it?
On to Magnesium. This metal had been alloyed as an admixture for assorted genitalia of the car anatomy as aboriginal as I researched, by Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY) in the 60s and is currently already actuality used. The Porsche GT3 RS has a magnesium roof produced by Magna International.
The allowances and challenges of application magnesium are able-bodied abundant out in this commodity and decidedly accessible to accept for a clairvoyant like me, who has no above-mentioned accomplishments in science or engineering. Essentially, the www.CanadianMetalWorking.com commodity appear in 2016 aggregate that the balloon on a Ford Fusion adopting added Magnesium admixture bargain weight adjoin the antecedent 2013 ancestor by 50% through the use of added magnesium in the body.
The claiming about was that magnesium is stiffer than aluminium and cannot be formed at allowance temperatures (requires 240 degrees Celsius) which adds to cost. There are additionally adjustment issues and amount of food as the absolute auto accumulation alternation has yet to readily accept this metal.
While all these analysis may assume far out, the acquirements from this failing agent activity termed Multi-Material Failing Agent (MMLV) has yielded new failing car genitalia such as this aperture bore in aboriginal 2017.
While still 50% fabricated from aluminium, the ultralight aperture acclimated Magna’s SmartLatch™ cyberbanking latch system, appropriately removing the automated accouterments and had chip bottle guides and lift adequacy of a failing amalgam bottle laminate. This aperture accomplished weight accumulation of 42.5%. This bore is slated for assembly in 2020.
Magna already has a apartment of failing solutions on their artefact catalog. Here’s aloof an archetype which can be begin in the 2019 Jeep Cherokee, Acura RDX, Nissan Rogue and BMW i3.
Image Source: rackcdn.com
In addition, the SmartLatch arrangement mentioned aloft had produced 200,000 units by the end of 2017, as appear in the anniversary report.
Seeking Alpha contributor Samuel Smith has an commodity calling it a acute buy. I absolutely accede with his credibility abnormally on YoY acquirement and antithesis growth.
While the aggregation trades at 7.5x P/E and is abreast 52-week lows, the antithesis and advance historically has been a assurance of solid management. Bear in apperception the accompaniment of the auto industry.
Over the 2013 to 2017 period, agent sales in the US grew 12% in total, and 2016 to 2017 accomplished a bordering decline.
Source: Magna International 2017 Anniversary Report
While the industry has lagged, Magna best up 7% sales and 14% EPS growth. The actual allotment almanac is able as well, growing at 14% in the accomplished 5 years and on top of that Magna is affairs aback shares.
Sales has connected to abound in 2018. EBIT as well. In particular, all segments accomplished sales advance and EBIT advance except Seating and Systems.
Image Source: edmunds-media.com
Magna’s antithesis area is healthy, and is currently application that backbone to buy aback shares.
The NTA (NAV adapted for affluence and amicableness of $2.43 billion) is $24.24 billion compared to a $16.38 billion bazaar cap. This ethics MGA at a price-to-tangible book amount of 0.68x.
Current 9 months EPS was $5.26 and Q4 angle of $0.73 (taking the everyman $255m disconnected by 350.1m shares outstanding as at Q3) gives an estimated FY2018 antithesis of $5.99. However, analysts had forecasted antithesis to abound from $5.90 (in 2017), $6.70 in 2018 and $8.10 in 2020.
Source: Wall Street Journal Consensus EPS Estimate
Based on $50, Magna currently trades at 8.34x FY2018 EPS. Bold advance charcoal stagnant, I account Magna will abide to use its able chargeless banknote to abide deepening its antithesis area and repurchasing shares.
In the accomplished 9 months alone, Magna had generated banknote flows from operations of $2.12 billion and acclimated $1.4 billion in CAPEX. They incurred an added $1.15 billion in debt (short-term debt in the U.S. Bartering Paper Affairs carries a abounding boilerplate of 2.42% interest) and bought aback $1.35 billion in shares.
Assuming acceptable allotment purchases after incurring new debt and apathetic advance in EPS of $6.10 in 2019. A $500 actor allotment acquirement would addition EPS by almost 3% (350m beneath 10m shares) to $6.28. At the aforementioned P/E of 8.34x, the allotment amount would be almost $52.40.
An important point was that administration still continues to apprehend $6b of chargeless banknote breeze in the 2018 to 2020 period. With that armamentarium advancing in I account the allotment acknowledgment will abide or access in 2019 and 2020. Bold $1b of purchases yearly, aloof advancement the aforementioned outlook, shares outstanding would abate by 6% anniversary year.
This to me is the abject case. I about see Magna as a able advance abeyant aggregation abnormally over the best appellation (my advance border is 7 years) and I am able to advance in this affair of advance in approaching cars.
Image Source: ytimg.com
Disclosure: I/we accept no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no affairs to admit any positions aural the abutting 72 hours.
I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.
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