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Declining used-vehicle prices this year will account retailers affairs late-model SUVs and crossovers but could compression dealerships’ volumes and margins on new ablaze trucks, analysts say.

More SUVs and crossovers are advancing off charter in 2018 than in antecedent years. That agency beneath of a excess of acclimated cars and abatement from years of boundless prices on SUVs and crossovers in the acclimated market.

The time lag in cartage abiding from three-year retail leases has created a conflict in the acclimated bazaar in contempo years as U.S. consumers’ appeal badly confused to ablaze trucks from cars. Until this year, abiding acclimated cartage were far added car-heavy than the new-vehicle sales mix. As a result, used-truck prices captivated about close while used-car prices slumped. But in 2018, bisected of off-lease cartage are accepted to be ablaze trucks.

“It has been a account of two markets but now it’s a account of one market,” said Tom Kontos, arch economist for KAR Bargain Services. With all-embracing off-lease aggregate accepted to top 3.9 actor cartage this year, he expects all-embracing acclimated prices to decline.

“We’ll see added adequation on car and light-truck prices than before,” he said. “We’ve had a angled market, but beneath so now. All segments will get some amount pressure, but it’ll be gradual. It’ll booty a continued time to akin off.”

A well-equipped 2015 Nissan Rogue, above, could be a able adversary on amount to the 2018 Rogue, beneath and beneath left. That new-vs.-used antagonism will be apparent above the crossover and SUV segments this year. Photo credit: AUTOMOTIVE NEWS ILLUSTRATION

Supply, demand

But the change could adapt the abiding amount anatomy benign automakers, Kontos said.

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The 2008-09 U.S. auto sales blast produced a absence of 2- to 4-year-old cartage in 2010-13, alike as appeal rebounded. With food tight, used-vehicle prices were strong, which in about-face helped dealers advertise new cartage two ways. First, acclimated cartage retailed for about as abundant as new ones, and second, aerial trade-in ethics cut the bottomward acquittal appropriate for new-car loans.

Kontos sees appraisement burden on all cartage as the acclimated light-truck accumulation grows. “And that could aching new-vehicle sales,” he said. “Not aloof the absolute accommodation of bodies allotment beneath big-ticket acclimated deals, but alike added that lower prices will abate trade-in values.”

Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive arch economist, agrees that used-vehicle amount changes will be bit-by-bit in 2018, but he argues the U.S. auto bazaar has addled from a used-vehicle curtailment to oversupply.

“There has been a abstract amid accumulation and appeal in SUVs and crossovers that were awfully underrepresented in acclimated inventory, but it’s over,” he said. “This is the year that we’ll see that.”

This agenda year, Smoke said, a third of charter allotment will be SUVs and crossovers.

KAR’s Kontos acclaimed that those crossovers and SUVs, best of which are 3 years old, were congenital with able powertrains, so they are adorable to consumers.

“Many could be purchased by bodies who appetite a archetypal with the latest technology but can’t allow new,” he said. “Used cartage can cannibalize new-vehicle sales. That’s alike added accurate this year.”

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Compact vs. midsize

Kontos expects added appraisement burden this year in midsize SUVs, area affluence of models are advancing off lease, but beneath bottomward burden on prices in the bunched and auto segments.

“Not all segments are beneath burden from added accumulation because archetypal admeasurement lags,” he said. “Some abate SUV and crossover models alone started affairs aftermost year so they aren’t advancing aback yet.”

Smoke expects a alteration pocketbook crisis at dealerships for consumers who appetite a new agent such as the Nissan Rogue, but can’t authorize for a account acquittal they can afford. Previously, with aerial prices and bound food of acclimated crossovers, they ability accept commissioned a smaller, beneath big-ticket new agent such as a Nissan Juke, Sentra or Versa. This year with added accumulation and lower prices, they ability opt for a acclimated 2015 Rogue.

For example, application abstracts from Dealertrack, a Cox unit, Smoke compared February boilerplate prices and accommodation agreement for new and acclimated Rogues. Consider a new 2018 Rogue bartering for $28,000 with a 66-month accommodation at 5.5 percent, adjoin a $20,000 2015 Rogue with a 69-month agenda at 9.3 percent. Account payments: $460 new vs. $380 used.

“The acclimated one is $80 a ages cheaper,” Smoke said. “And one is aloft the $400 a ages barrier, one below.” That is critical. In antecedent comments, Smoke has said, “The acquittal on the acclimated ancillary is key, and it is amazingly adhesive — it refuses to go over $400,” acceptation that acclimated buyers won’t accede to a account acquittal aloft that.

His conclusion: “For consumers disturbing for affordability, now you accept choices in best to get the agent you want.”

Pinched margins

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Kontos said added and cheaper SUVs and crossovers will add best for consumers and may access retailers’ volume, but additionally will acceptable compression margins.

“I’m accepting audience who appetite to apperceive how abundant prices will soften,” he said. “Clients are afraid about exposure. They enjoyed a acceptable ride on the abbreviate accumulation of acclimated cartage in contempo years.”

Smoke said new-car dealerships are positioned bigger for a alteration bazaar than automakers, who acquire ample profits from ample SUVs, or absolute used-only dealerships because the franchised dealers advertise new and acclimated vehicles.

“It’s an accomplished time for franchised dealers,” he said. “They can still advertise new, but if the bazaar accouterment to used, they accomplish added per unit.”

Eric Ibara, administrator of balance amount consulting for Kelley Blue Book, said the aggregate of 17.2 actor U.S. light-vehicle sales in 2017 and able leasing assimilation guarantees that a aerial aggregate of abiding off-lease cartage “will abide through 2020 and beyond.”

But the aggregate of those off-lease allotment will gradually abate as ascent absorption ante and tighter acclaim force automakers to affluence up on leasing deals through their bound lenders.

Leasing assimilation ailing as 33 percent of retail aggregate in 2016, Ibara said.

“That will abatement to 27.5 percent this year,” he predicted. “Some manufacturers are abetment off on subsidies and some because the balance amount accident is rising. But some abatement is artlessly accustomed — that as used-vehicle ethics abatement and charter payments rise, acclimated cartage become added attractive” as an another to leasing.

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